Wednesday, May 06, 2009Momentum and the Castrol IndexThere’s been a lot of talk of momentum at this year’s IPL. Some say Bangalore has momentum on their side now that they have won three straight games. Or Deccan, who started off with four wins on the trot, have subsequently lost momentum with three losses. All the talk would seem to indicate that a side that’s won a match is more likely to win their next. And similarly, losing would breed more losing. A look at the numbers for the IPL 2009 (excluding abandoned matches) shows that just looking at side’s result in their previous game is not a strong indicator of success in their next game.
So what is a good indicator of success? “Momentum” cannot just be based on match results- this is too simplistic. A number of factors need to be considered- overall batting, bowling, fielding, performance in the power play and performance at the death. All over the course of a number of recent matches, not just a single match. And that’s exactly what the Castrol Team Index does. In a year where seven teams are bunched close together in the points table, the Castrol Index (CI) is a useful tool to help us understand which teams should make the final four. It worked for the IPL 2008. Here’s a look at the team standings after 33 matches in the tournament last year (a similar stage to where we are at for the IPL 2009)
The CI after 33 matches indicated that Rajasthan were the best, Punjab were next and should move into second. Chennai were not as good as their table position suggested (remember the Super Kings cooled off after a 4-0 start with Hussey and Hayden leaving), but still good enough to make the semis. Kolkata and Mumbai were in close running for a semi spot but on the outside looking in, while Deccan and Bangalore really didn’t have a chance. And that’s pretty much how things panned out. So keep an eye on the CI for 2009. Based on how things stand right now, Chennai, Mumbai and Delhi are the strongest sides and should make the final four. Rajasthan, Deccan, Bangalore and Punjab are not too far apart in the ratings which makes for a close contest between them. Of course, it doesn’t take an index to tell you the Kolkata Knight Riders need a miracle to move up the standings. (1) Comments
16th Over Syndrome foxing the batsmenThe 16th over Syndrome is fast catching the eyes of the teams, perhaps more than the Strategic Time-out Syndrome. Data available to Castrol Index (till April 30, 2009) shows that more wickets have fallen in the 16th over than in the 11th over, which follows the Strategic Time Out at the end of the 10th over.
Though 19th and 20th overs have devoured the most number of wickets presumably because batsmen tend to take more risks during the slog overs, it’s the high number of wickets that fall in the 16th over which have resulted in the slump in the Extreme Performance Batting averages of the teams this year, in comparison to 2008 (see table below).
The 16th over syndrome can be attributed to the fact that due to the difficult batting tracks in South Africa, the teams tend to surge their scoring rates forcefully from the 15th over. But, with the tricky wickets not helping the hard-hitters, slogging often becomes a challenging task, resulting in wickets tumbling in the 16th over, thereby affecting the run rate of the team. No wonder, teams are finding it more difficult to post a 200 plus total in this tournament
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