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Friday, June 19, 2009

To chase or to defend: Oval throws important question

The Kennington Oval is a batting paradise but the wicket slows down considerably under the lights. A 45-run difference between the average first innings and second innings score at this venue may emerge as a key to the strategists of West Indies and Sri Lanka.

The high scoring nature of this wicket will help both Sri Lanka and West Indies. Secondly, traditionally the Oval wicket is very balanced as out of the 10 T20 Internationals played here, 5 of them are won by team batting first.

So what should a captain do? Chase a target or defend a total? Let’s weigh the options.

Considering the hard hitting ways of batting in both the sides, an average first innings total of 180 or more would be the ideal start that both the teams will be looking at. According to Castrol Index, Sri Lanka has won 80% of its matches batting first with a par score of 161 and a Batting Momentum (BM) of 215.

What is more bothering, however, is that the average second innings score at the Oval is around 135. The 45 runs difference between the two innings, coupled with Sri Lanka’s bowling prowess may land West Indies in trouble should they decide to chase here. The three main Windies’ bowlers – Bravo, Taylor and Edwards – have given away around 9 runs per over in this tournament, which translates to around 110 runs in the 12 overs they bowl. In contrast, the Lankan trio of Mendis, Murali and Malinga concede only 75 runs in their 12 overs. This difference of 35 runs is a huge savings in a T20 International. Will Sri Lanka be better off defending a total on this wicket then?

Now let’s see the options favourable to chasing:

• Gayle and other Windies’ batsmen are in great form and have proved that they are great chasers. They have to score at least 35 runs more off the Lankan Three M’s to offset any calculation
• The Oval wicket offers fewer opportunities to bowlers in the second innings
• 80% of the wickets at the Oval are captured by pacers – a big plus for the Windies which is packed with fast bowlers. But they have to be disciplined and should not give away extra runs.

West Indies have proved earlier that they are good chasers at the Oval. Will they take the chance again at the Oval?

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Thursday, June 18, 2009

The curious case of Trent Bridge Nottingham

Twenty-twenty matches in Trent Bridge are a bit skewed in favour of the team batting first. Castrol Index analyses the International T20 matches played at the venue and throws the question what’s the best decision to take after winning the toss – bat first or bowl first?

According to Castrol Index, 56% of the matches played on the Trent Bridge pitch have been won by teams batting first. South Africa has won all its matches played on the Trent Bridge pitch.

The table above reflects an interesting fact. Teams batting first have scored more runs at the cost of more wickets than teams batting second on their way to win the matches. Batting first, teams have been able to put an average of 174 runs losing at an average of 6 wickets while teams bowling second have taken an average of 6.5 wickets while scoring only 131 runs. The analysis reflects the slowness of the wicket which deteriorates within a matter of 20 overs.

South Africa would be aware of this curious nature of the pitch here as they have played twice here and won both the times. Interestingly, for South Africa, batting first or batting second matter the least. In this tournament, they have just won every match till now, batting first or second.

But for Pakistan, it is for the first time they will play on this wicket in the tournament. Pakistan plays better cricket when they bat first as reflected in the table below.

Pakistan’s Performance in 2009 ICC T20

In view of the above, what would be skipper Younis Khan’s decision of if he wins the toss?

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