Can Pakistan make it to the Super 8s?

Four days into the competition, we already know seven of the eight sides that will be a part of the Super Eight stage. We also know which group they will end up in thanks to the seeding system used at this year’s tournament. Here’s how the two groups for the Super Eight stage are shaping up.

Three of the remaining matches in the preliminary group stage are now dead rubbers- Sri Lanka-West Indies, India-Ireland and South Africa-New Zealand will serve as nothing more than warm-up matches. The results of those matches will not affect the Super Eight group classification because of the seeding system used.

The one match with everything to play for is the Group B encounter between Pakistan and the Netherlands. England is already through from the group on the basis of their high net run-rate and there is one spot remaining.

If Pakistan loses, they are out and the Netherlands will join Ireland, New Zealand and Sri Lanka in one section of the Super Eights. So Pakistan must win, but they must also win big in order to qualify with net run-rates coming into the equation. If they bat first, Pakistan need to win by at least 25 runs in order to qualify, regardless of much they score. So if Pakistan scores 150, they need to restrict the Netherlands to 125 or less in order to make it. If Pakistan chase, they need to win with about 3 overs to spare. If Netherlands score 120, Pakistan needs to get to 121 within 16.4 overs in order to qualify; if the Dutch score 160, Pakistan needs to get to 161 within 17.1 overs.

The match result really depends on which Pakistan side shows up for the game- the one that looked unbeatable for the most part of the T20 World Championships 2007 or the one that’s played like a minnow at the 2009 Championships thus far. Here’s a breakdown of Pakistan’s performance last year versus what they have done this year, as measured by the Castrol Index

The right hand column might be based on just one match, but remember Pakistan didn’t look great in their warm-up matches either. The numbers tell you the 2007 side was really impressive in all departments- a team that played to its full potential. And this 2009 side will need to play to its full potential or end up taking an early flight back home.

Arvind Iyengar - View Profile.