T20 and IPL First innings scores: an analysis
With the third installment of the Indian Premier League just around the corner, our expert digs up some interesting T20 statistics.
Now that the IPL-3 is scheduled to start on March 12, let me turn my attention to the T20 format. This is an analysis of the first innings scores in T20s and IPL matches. Only innings which went into the 20th over and in which the teams were not dismissed are considered.
| T20 Internationals | ||||||
| Cumulative values | ||||||
| First inns scores | Matches | FBat wins | % wins | Matches | FBat wins | % wins |
| 200 and above | 14 | 12 | 85.7% | 14 | 12 | 85.7% |
| 180-199 | 16 | 16 | 100.0% | 30 | 28 | 93.3% |
| 170-179 | 8 | 7 | 87.5% | 38 | 35 | 92.1% |
| 160-169 | 15 | 4 | 26.7% | 53 | 39 | 73.6% |
| 150-159 | 19 | 14 | 73.7% | 72 | 53 | 73.6% |
| 140-149 | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 86 | 57 | 66.3% |
| 130-139 | 18 | 5 | 27.8% | 104 | 62 | 59.6% |
| 120-129 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 116 | 63 | 54.3% |
| 119 and below | 14 | 0 | 0.0% | 130 | 63 | 48.5% |
| 130 | 63 | 48.5% | ||||
| Average 155.8 | ||||||
| 156 and above | 60 | 44 | 73.3% |
A perusal of the first innings scores of the T20 Internationals indicates quite a few facts.
High scores are defended quite comfortably. It can be seen that if teams score 170+ runs, they have a 92.1% chance of winning a match. If a team sets itself a seemingly high objective of 75% chance of success, they have to score around 163 runs. The average first innings score is 155.8 and teams scoring above the average have a very high 73.3% chance of winning.
However, look at the bottom. Only one team which scored below 130 has won. This indicates that in T20Is, low scores cannot be defended.
These numbers indicate a wide disparity in the team strengths between the teams. That is the reason why the winning chances are quite high for average plus scores.
There is a quite an inexplicable variation at the 160-169 range. The winning % here is a low 26.7% as compared to the winning % at the lower range of 150-159, which is 73.7%. The only explanation is that there is a degree of complacency which sets at defending these scores around par. The other possibility is that the weaker teams manage to score these above-par runs and are not able to defend these.
| IPL-1 / IPL-2 / CT | ||||||
| Cumulative values | ||||||
| First inns scores | Matches | FBat wins | % wins | Matches | FBat wins | % wins |
| 200 and above | 9 | 8 | 88.9% | 9 | 8 | 88.9% |
| 180-199 | 16 | 13 | 81.3% | 25 | 21 | 84.0% |
| 170-179 | 14 | 8 | 57.1% | 39 | 29 | 74.4% |
| 160-169 | 18 | 7 | 38.9% | 57 | 36 | 63.2% |
| 150-159 | 16 | 6 | 37.5% | 73 | 42 | 57.5% |
| 140-149 | 24 | 7 | 29.2% | 97 | 49 | 50.5% |
| 130-139 | 11 | 5 | 45.5% | 108 | 54 | 50.0% |
| 120-129 | 7 | 1 | 14.3% | 115 | 55 | 47.8% |
| 119 and below | 14 | 4 | 28.6% | 129 | 59 | 45.7% |
| 129 | 59 | 45.7% | ||||
| Average 157.1 | ||||||
| 158 and above | 60 | 37 | 61.7% |
In IPLs, the situation is quite different.
High scores cannot be defended that easily. It can be seen that if teams score 170+ runs, they have only a 74.4% chance of winning a match. If a team sets itself a seemingly high objective of 75% chance of success, they have to score around 172 runs. The average first innings score is 157.1 and teams scoring above the average have quite a middling 61.7% chance of winning.
However look at the bottom. Five teams have defended totals below 130, as compared to T20Is figure of one. This indicates that in IPL matches low scores can be defended.
That is a paradox. You need a higher than T20I score to get a similar chance of winning. At the same time, far lower totals have been defended.
These numbers indicate closeness in the team strengths between the teams. These are teams formed with a clear understanding of team balance and bench strength. There are no inherent country type weaknesses. I will do a study of IPL Team strengths later to analyze these aspects.
The conclusion is that in T20Is, the winning score is somewhat lower because of the disparity in strengths. At the same time, very few low scores have been defended. In IPLs, the winning score is pegged at higher levels. However, many lower scores have been defended. The IPL matches represent more even contests.
Subscribe to RSS
