IPL 2011: Pretenders and Contenders

The fourth edition of the Indian Premier League is underway and there’s no telling yet of who’s going to go all the way to lift the big prize. Our expert takes a look at the teams in the fray…

We are a third of the way through IPL version four. The matches have been close as expected and the points table and the team Castrol Indices suggest that the tournament is wide open. The games have also reinforced some of my pre-tournament team rankings. Here’s a look at where the teams might end up come the end of the league stages.

Bottom of the Pack

Teams: Delhi Daredevils, Kings XI Punjab, Deccan Chargers,
These were my picks before the tournament and while Punjab has looked good thanks to the efforts of Paul Valthaty, it would take a brave man to say that his form will be sustainable throughout the tournament. For Delhi, Warner and Venugopal Rao have looked good with the bat, but there doesn’t seem to be a lot of batting depth while the bowling has been pretty poor. Deccan for their part has little prolific Indian talent and with captain Kumar Sangakkara now expected to miss the back half of the tournament, it will be tough for them to make it to the final four.

Question Marks

Teams: Pune Warriors, Kolkata Knight Riders, Royal Challengers Bangalore

This is an interesting mix of teams. I would not have picked Pune and KKR to have done this well so far, ranking in 3rd and 4th on the Castrol Index. They also have the highest net run-rates amongst the ten teams, which is a good measure of performance so far. The operative words here are ‘so far’- both Pune and Kolkata are ‘new teams’ (yes, KKR has been around IPLs 1-3 but not with this group of players), which makes me wonder how they will perform under pressure and whether every player will know his role in the death overs. KKR have lost their two close games - to Chennai and Kochi - and their ‘Extreme Performance’ batting and bowling rankings (a measure of performance in the last five overs of an innings) are subpar with the team coming in last in batting at the death. With Pune, the bowling looks suspect while there isn’t a ton of batting depth. The question for these two sides is whether they can sustain their early performances or whether they will come up short in close matches against more experienced teams.

Bangalore on the other hand has underperformed, with 1 win in their first 5 games. However, on paper they are much better. Even after they lose Dilshan, there’s a ton of talent with de Villiers, Kohli, Zaheer Khan and now Chris Gayle. I would expect them to bounce back, but the question with them is whether they have dug themselves into too much of a hole to climb out of it.  

Dark Horses
Teams: Rajasthan Royals, Kochi Tuskers Kerala

Kochi and Rajasthan were teams that were written off by many at the start. The thing about Rajasthan is that they have strong leadership, starting with captain Warne but also with the likes of Dravid, Botha, Collingwood and Taylor who have been in leadership positions for their national sides. That can go a long way in inspiring the younger players and creating a culture of success, something that worked for the Royals in season one. For Kochi, the batting has looked good so far as evidenced by the team’s high batting momentum, but the bowling looks pretty solid with a lot of handy India bowlers and with Muralitharan as their foreign star. They will be dealt a blow with the loss of Jayawardene, but if they manage to snag Ganguly and have him as captain, you know the former Indian captain will want to prove critics wrong and lead this side to the knockout stages. Expect these dark horses to continue to surprise and stay in the running for the final four. 

Favourites

Teams: Mumbai Indians, Chennai Super Kings

The Castrol Index has these two teams right at the top. Couple that with the fact that each side has their core intact from the past three seasons, and you have two championship caliber teams that know how to execute, have tasted success and are led by inspirational figures. Expect them to find their winning ways and stay close to the top of the table.