Quarterfinal Lineups

In light of England’s stupendous win over the West Indies on Thursday and the next few games, we take a look at possible quarterfinal match-ups and what it means for Team India.

After a month of action, we are at the finish line of the league phase at the 2011 World Cup. With England’s win against the West Indies, we still don’t know which eight teams will make to the knockout stage with West Indies, Bangladesh and England still fighting for the final spot. Theoretically, India is also in danger of not making the final eight, but they’ll need to lose by a big margin for their net run rate to fall below England.

At the time of writing this article, there are four meaningful games remaining in the group stage. The first two matches are New Zealand playing Sri Lanka in Mumbai and Bangladesh taking on South Africa in Mirpur. While these two matches have the potential to be close, going by the Castrol Predictor odds and by personal intuition, I would expect Sri Lanka and South Africa to come away with victories. Assuming this holds true, the quarterfinal lineup will then be based on how the Australia-Pakistan and India-West Indies games end up. Assuming net run rates do not change substantially, here are four possible scenarios. 

Scenario 1: Australia beat Pakistan, India beat the West Indies

If I had to put my money on how the results will play out over the weekend, this is what I would bet on. Here’s what the quarterfinal lineup would look like in this scenario:

This is probably India’s best case outcome - as good as New Zealand has been in the tournament, they are probably an easier opponent than Sri Lanka or Pakistan. The Proteas would end up with a tough opponent in this case, despite topping their group. If this plays out, losing to South Africa in group phase may not have been a bad thing for Team India’s chances!

Scenario 2: Australia beat Pakistan, West Indies beat India

Nothing changes for South Africa or Pakistan in this scenario, but India and Sri Lanka end up with tougher draws.


Scenario 3: Pakistan beat Australia, India beat the West Indies

The Men in Blue would end up playing the defending champs in this scenario, while Pakistan, South Africa and Sri Lanka would be fancied to advance to the semis.

Scenario 4: Pakistan beat Australia, West Indies beat India

This would again lead to a tough match-up for India against Sri Lanka in the final eight, and they wouldn’t want to end up with a repeat of the 1996 Eden Gardens semi-final performance.

Things could get even more mixed up if the Kiwis upset Sri Lanka, if Bangladesh beat the Proteas or if we see some major wins/losses that could significantly alter net run rates. For now, these are probably the four most likely scenarios and scenario one is probably the best for Team India.