A new method to measure Pitch behaviour

Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Traditionally, pitch behaviour in ODI cricket is measured on the basis of Runs per Wicket. Our expert attempts a different view.

I have adopted a new method of evaluating the Pitch behaviour in ODI matches. The traditional method is to do this based on Runs per Wicket value. This has an inherent weakness, in that more than half of the wickets, in normal matches, are those of late order batsmen and batsmen who slog. Hence I have adopted a measure which is the average of the top 5 scores in the match, taken across the two teams. It has turned out to be a very robust measure which reflects the type of pitch on which the match was played very well.

The number 5 has been selected after a number of trials. For quite some time, I had the average of top-6. However, a careful analysis had shown that the sixth best score turned to be a low not-so-relevant score in many matches. Hence I restricted myself to the top-5, out of the 22 scores.

The purpose of the article is only to open the doors for the readers to a new concept. The question of how this measure is used to get a handle on the Pitch behaviour is outside the scope of this article.

 

Table of top 20 matches ordered on Top 5 score average

No.	MtId	Year	Top5 Avg	FBt	Score	Overs	Res	FBt	Score	Overs
1.	2349	2006	117.8	Aus	434/4	(50.0)	Lost	Saf	438/ 9	(49.5)
2.	2932	2009	107.4	Ind	414/7	(50.0)	Won	Slk	411/ 8	(50.0)
3.	1279	1998	100.8	Pak	314/5	(50.0)	Lost	Ind	316/ 7	(47.5)
4.	2527	2007	100.6	Aus	346/5	(50.0)	Lost	Nzl	350/ 9	(49.3)
5.	2252	2005	100.4	Eng	391/4	(50.0)	Won	Bng	223/10	(45.2)
6.	2962	2010	99.4	Ind	401/3	(50.0)	Won	Saf	248/10	(42.5)
7.	2923	2009	99.2	Aus	350/4	(50.0)	Won	Ind	347/10	(49.4)
8.	2823	2009	98.8	Ind	392/4	(50.0)	Won	Nzl	334/10	(45.1)
9.	2096	2004	96.6	Win	304/2	(50.0)	Lost	Saf	310/ 6	(49.4)
10.	1371	1998	95.6	Pak	315/8	(50.0)	Lost	Aus	316/ 4	(48.5)
11.	2140	2004	95.4	Eng	285/7	(50.0)	Lost	Win	286/ 3	(49.1)
12.	2856	2009	95.2	Sco	286/4	(50.0)	Lost	Can	287/ 4	(48.4)
13.	1223	1997	94.8	Slk	302/4	(50.0)	Won	Ind	300/ 7	(50.0)
14.	1896	2002	94.2	Win	324/4	(50.0)	Lost	Ind	325/ 5	(47.4)
15.	2935	2009	93.6	Slk	315/6	(50.0)	Lost	Ind	317/ 3	(48.1)
16.	2389	2006	93.4	Eng	321/7	(50.0)	Lost	Slk	324/ 2	(37.3)
17.	2290	2005	92.8	Slk	298/4	(50.0)	Lost	Ind	303/ 4	(46.1)
18.	0229	1983	92.2	Win	333/8	(50.0)	Won	Ind	229/ 5	(45.0)
19.	2589	2007	92.0	Asi	331/8	(50.0)	Won	Afr	318/ 7	(50.0)
20.	3057	2010	92.0	Saf	351/6	(50.0)	Won	Zim	287/ 6	(50.0)

The top entry is not a surprise. This is the match with the highest aggregate of runs scored. The top 5 scores are 175, 164, 90, 81 and 79. The next is a recent successful, but narrow, defence of a 400+ score by India. The high scores were 160, 146, 90, 69 and 67. We then quickly move to a successful chase of 300+ by India. The high scores were 140, 124, 117, 82 and 41.

Note how even good chases of high-200 scores have appeared in this table.

Table of bottom 20 matches ordered on Top 5 score average

No.	MtId	Year	Top5 Avg	FBt	Score	Overs	Res	FBt	Score	Overs
1.	2122	2004	9.8	Zim	35/10	(18.0)	Lost	Slk	40/ 1	( 9.2)
2.	1958	2003	11.4	Can	36/10	(18.4)	Lost	Slk	37/ 1	( 4.4)
3.	1776	2001	12.4	Zim	38/10	(15.4)	Lost	Slk	40/ 1	( 4.2)
4.	0812	1993	12.6	Pak	43/10	(19.5)	Lost	Win	45/ 3	(12.3)
5.	2920	2009	12.6	Zim	44/10	(24.5)	Lost	Bng	49/ 4	(11.5)
6.	0067	1979	13.2	Can	45/10	(40.3)	Lost	Eng	46/ 2	(13.5)
7.	0321	1985	15.8	Nzl	51/ 3	(22.0)	Lost	Win	55/ 4	(17.0)
8.	0772	1992	16.4	Aus	101/ 9	(30.0)	Won	Win	87/10	(29.3)
9.	2172	2004	17.4	Usa	65/10	(24.0)	Lost	Aus	66/ 1	( 7.5)
10.	2780	2008	17.8	Zim	67/10	(31.0)	Lost	Slk	71/ 1	(17.4)
11.	0148	1982	18.6	Nzl	74/10	(29.0)	Lost	Aus	75/ 2	(20.3)
12.	0104	1981	19.2	Ind	63/10	(25.5)	Lost	Aus	64/ 1	(21.0)
13.	1465	1999	19.4	Sco	68/10	(31.3)	Lost	Win	70/ 2	(10.1)
14.	1858	2002	19.4	Bng	76/10	(30.1)	Lost	Slk	77/ 2	(15.4)
15.	2456	2006	19.6	Hol	91/10	(26.4)	Lost	Ber	94/ 4	(17.0)
16.	0778	1993	19.6	Pak	71/10	(23.4)	Lost	Win	72/ 1	(19.2)
17.	2136	2004	19.6	Eng	101/10	(32.5)	Lost	Nzl	103/ 3	(17.2)
18.	0384	1986	20.2	Nzl	64/10	(35.5)	Lost	Pak	66/ 0	(22.4)
19.	2343	2006	20.6	Ken	134/10	(42.5)	Won	Zim	69/10	(22.5)
20.	1928	2003	21.2	Ind	108/10	(41.1)	Lost	Nzl	109/ 5	(26.5)

Sri Lanka is the only team which has dismissed the opposing team under 40, not once but three times. It will not surprise anyone that there are the last three matches. The top-5 scores are 28, 7, 6, 4 and 4; 24, 9, 9, 9 and 6; and 23, 16, 13, 6 and 4. The top-5 averages for these three matches are around 10.0.

Later in the table there are a few matches in which a team has scored 100 runs or more.

Just as a matter of interest I have presented below the Top 5 score average for the recently concluded India-New Zealand series.

Match	score	AvgeTop5
276/10	236/10	57.2
258/8	259/2	72.8
224/9	229/1	66.8
315/7	321/5	72.8
103/10	107/2	32.4

Star Batsmen in the IPL

Tuesday, December 14, 2010

The fourth edition of the Indian Premier League will be back in 2011 with more teams and more players up for grabs in the upcoming auction.

There has been a lot of talk about player retention heading into the auction for Indian Premier League (IPL) season four. Different franchises have adopted different strategies - Mumbai and Chennai, who were the most successful teams last year, retained four players each. The other six franchises with an option to retain kept four players cumulatively.

This means that there will be plenty of top players up for grabs at the auction. In an effort to understand which batsmen franchises should target, we decided to look at past performances to identify the stars from IPL seasons 1 and 2. In a subsequent article, we will look at a more detailed analysis of IPL season 3. In the analysis below, only batsmen who have played in at least 20 matches have been considered, which means the likes of Hayden, Symonds, Taylor and McCullum have been left out. 

The bubble graph helps us identify the most consistent players across the first two seasons of the IPL. The horizontal axis represents runs per innings (RPI), while the vertical is strike rate. The size of bubble represents number of runs scored.

The more top right a batsman is on the graph above, the higher his strike rate and RPI implying the better his performance. Gilchrist and Raina turn out to be the most consistent performers, while Sehwag and Yusuf Pathan have the highest strike rates.
Meanwhile, de Villiers, Gambhir, Rohit Sharma and Dhoni also have good records.
 
Another measure of overall batting performance is the Batting Momentum, which combines runs per innings and strike rate into one single measure. The table below shows the top 15 batsmen for the first two seasons of the IPL.

Player	Runs	Runs per innings	Strike rate	Batting Momentum
Gilchrist, AC	931	31.0	144.8	44.9
Raina, SK	855	30.5	141.6	43.2
Jayasuriya, ST	735	28.3	146.7	41.5
Sehwag, V	604	24.2	168.7	40.8
Pathan, YK	678	24.2	159.2	38.5
Sangakkara, KC	652	29.6	124.9	37.0
de Villiers, AB	560	29.5	123.6	36.4
Dhoni, MS	746	27.6	130.7	36.1
Sharma, RG	766	27.4	130.3	35.6
Gambhir, G	820	28.3	124.8	35.3
Dilshan, TM	522	26.1	124.3	32.4
Smith, GC	653	28.4	113.0	32.1
Tendulkar, SR	552	27.6	115.0	31.7
Yuvraj Singh	639	22.8	133.4	30.4
Dravid, RS	642	24.7	120.7	29.8

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Based on this analysis, you would think franchises should keep an eye out for players like Yusuf Pathan, AB de Villiers, Rohit Sharma and Gautam Gambhir. Age is a factor franchises must consider, which is probably why someone like a Gilchrist was not retained. Overall, there are going to be a lot of big names to choose from and franchises need to value players wisely. As we get closer to the IPL auction, we will continue to analyze player valuations and identify the men to watch for in the next edition of the country’s premier T20 competition.