Thursday, March 22, 2012

2012 Asia Cup: Road to the Finals

It’s the big match! The two best teams in the 2012 Asia Cup, Bangladesh and Pakistan, have made it to the finals. Some spectacular performances from both, especially the hosts, in the league stage meant that these two sides will meet again in the deciding tie of the tournament.

Pakistan started off in the tournament on a positive note, but not without a scare as they narrowly managed to edge out Bangladesh by a meagre 3 points on the Castrol Index. Having posted 262 on the scoreboard, they lost their way in the middle but a tremendous fight-back by their bowlers in the Extreme Performance Overs – picking up five wickets and achieving 41 points – helped them to a 21-run victory. The Top Performer of the match was Mohammad Hafeez who achieved the highest Overall Index of 69 for his all-round effort: 89 runs with the bat and bowling figures of 2/40. 

Led by Misbah-ul-Haq, Pakistan carried the winning momentum into the third match of the tournament as they thumped Sri Lanka (who had already lost their first encounter against India) by 18 points on the Index. Gaining a bonus point, this victory helped them put one foot into the finals. Their bowling department again stepped up and delivered the goods as they didn’t allow the opposition to gain momentum at any point of time in the match. With a staggering Bowling Efficiency of 282, they restricted the Lions to a paltry 188. Their batsmen easily chased it down with 61 balls to spare.

Having fought bravely in the opener, a confident Bangladesh caused a major upset when they outclassed India by a thin Index margin of 6 points in Match 4. They did well to restrict the Indians to 289 on a good batting track. Mashrafe Mortaza, with the best Bowling Efficiency of the match - 160, bowled a disciplined spell and picked up 2/44. A patient half-century from Tamim Iqbal up the order and then a late blitz by Shakib Al Hassan (BM = 97) and Mushfiqur Rahim (BM = 103) powered the hosts home as they scored 85 runs from the Extreme Overs with 30 Index points.

Pakistan suffered their first loss of the tournament in the fifth game against arch rivals India. They started off in a blistering manner, posting a humongous total of 329. Hafeez and Nasir Jamshed played intelligently to score centuries as Pakistan came up with a staggering Batting Momentum of 492. But a sumptuous batting display from Virat Kohli, who scored 183 off 148 deliveries with an amazing Batting Momentum of 300 and the best Castrol Index of 95, made sure that India managed to outshine Pakistan. At a slightly better Batting Momentum of 511 too! However, the men in green still qualified for the finals as they did not concede the bonus point to India.

Bangladesh needed to win their next match in order to qualify for the finals and they responded with a spectacular win edging out the Lankan Lions by another slim margin of 6 points on the Index. Nazmul Hossain, playing his first match of the tournament, ripped through the Lankan top order and achieved the best Overall Index of 54 and a Bowling Efficiency of 235 in the match, helping his side restrict the visitors to 232. After a rain delay, they were set a tricky target of 212 from 40 overs. Once again, Tamim and Shakib pulled their team out of a tough situation with a solid partnership. The latter’s Batting Momentum of 91 in the match ensured Bangladesh storm into the finals of the Asia Cup for the first time.


The focus now shifts to the big day. Having beaten heavyweights like India and Sri Lanka in the group stages and qualifying for their first ever Asia Cup final, the Bangla Tigers would be brimming with confidence. Their strength lies in their all-round ability, having scored all 746 runs in tricky chases and hauling 23 wickets from 3 matches. Currently, they are slightly ahead of Pakistan with a better overall Batting Momentum and Bowling Efficiency. Shakib Al Hasan has been the most important contributor and the Top Performer for Bangladesh (third highest overall) with 117 points and the second best Batting Momentum of 89. His all-round abilities and aggressive batting approach have been crucial to his side’s fortunes.

Pakistan’s strong bowling unit has picked up the most number of wickets in the tournament till now - 24 in all. As they conceded too many runs in their final group stage match against India, they are slightly behind Bangladesh in Bowling Efficiency, attaining 345 points compared to the Tigers’ 352. Pace spearhead and leading wicket-taker in this Asia Cup, Umar Gul (7 wickets from 3 matches) has bowled with great heart. His prowess as a bowler is justified completely as he stands tall in the Overall Index rankings on the second spot only after Kohli. His tight line and length and ability to pick up wickets during critical junctures have achieved for him a third-best Bowling Efficiency of 51. He will be the biggest threat for Bangladesh in the Quick Start as well as Extreme Performance Overs.  

As analysed in our Asia Cup Prediction, Sri Lanka may have started this tournament as favourites but their listless performances left them without a single win. Bangladesh, however, did and still can spring a surprise as predicted. The hosts hold a slight edge on the Castrol Index with 163 points compared to Pakistan’s 157. While the difference may seem slender here, Pakistan – who are seeking a second Asia Cup trophy – will be wary of dismissing Bangladesh in the latter’s backyard. A cracker of a contest is definitely on the cards!

Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Castrol Index Tournament Predictor places Sri Lanka as favourites for Asia Cup

One of the oldest ODI tournaments, the Asia Cup, is all set to kick off in a couple of days. First held in 1984 in Sharjah, the 11th edition this year sees Bangladesh as hosts. Current defending champions India have won the most number of Asia Cup titles, being crowned five times. This time around, coming a year after the ICC Cricket World Cup, the teams are looking forward to play against each other and establish which team is the best in the sub-continent.

The recent ODI performances of these Asian teams have thrown up some interesting results. Pakistan lost 0-4 to England when everybody expected them to win after whitewashing the Poms in the Tests. Bangladesh last played ODI cricket against Pakistan and ended up losing 0-3 to them. India and Sri Lanka were locked in battle Down Under for a spot in the final of the Commonwealth Bank Series against Australia, but it was the Islanders that made it to the finals with convincing performances.  If the last series played by the teams are anything to go by, there is no clear favourite for the Asian Championship as a lot will depend on the individual player performances seen during the past few months.

The Castrol Index, as you are aware, brings to you a comprehensive analysis of team and player performances. This time, we focused on all the Asia Cup tournaments held so far, analysed those matches and player data, and have arrived at the following result for who could possibly lift the Cup.
                  
As seen in the Castrol Index analysis, the top three teams – Sri Lanka, Pakistan and India – are fairly close to each other. The Lankans, however, emerge as the first among equals simply because they have won more matches than India or Pakistan in the last month or so. Each player has put in winning performances on different occasions thereby enhancing their win probability. India and Pakistan, on the other hand, have had fewer players contributing.

The 2011 Cricket World Cup runners-up have enjoyed a good run in the 50-over format over the past one month. Under new captain Mahela Jayawardena, they have regrouped and are moving from strength to strength. According to the Castrol Index Tournament Predictor, Sri Lanka has the highest probability of winning the Asia Cup with 35%.  In the CB series, they beat the World No. 1 team Australia and World Champions India to emerge on top of the table in the league stages. Despite losing the best-of-three finals 1-2 to Australia, their overall performance in the series was enough to suggest that they are high on momentum. A definite advantage for them over their Asian counterparts.

Pakistan has rapidly rebuilt a solid-looking unit under the captaincy of Misbah-ul-Haq, and has done well in the past few months, especially in sub-continental conditions. Last year’s World Cup semi-finalists will be looking to cement their position by winning the elusive Asia Cup, a tournament they haven’t traditionally been great in. But things could be different this time around. With an inspirational captain at the helm, the side has played the most in the subcontinent conditions in the recent past which should stand them in good stead. With a win probability of 32%, Pakistan could well be on its way to top honours in the Asian contest.

                               
The Team Strength Index (TSI) also shows a very narrow gap between the two top sides. This Index was extracted from factors such as an estimated Final XI, the career figures of selected players and the recent form related numbers of players, bowling and batting.

Around this time last year, MS Dhoni’s Men in Blue were on the road to being crowned World Champions. But sadly, in less than 12 months, the team seems to have forgotten its fairytale success with their ODI outfit going downhill with embarrassing series defeats in England and Australia. However, India’s fine record in the sub-continent is still intact and the team can take heart from this fact. Even though they are the defending champions of the Asia Cup, the Indians have got the lowest billing among the three experienced teams with a win probability at 30%. That is simply because the cornerstone of this analysis is Player Data which takes into consideration runs per innings, batting strike rate, bowling accuracy, and bowling strike rate. All these factors are powered by career data as well as recent form.

Bangladesh has been the weakest side among the four, prominently displayed by the fact that their win probability is only a measly 3% according to the Castrol Index analysis. But no one should dismiss the hosts as they are known to put up a keen fight and can potentially spring a surprise like they have against higher ranked oppositions on many occasions. That they will be playing on their home turf with a massive fan base is sure to give them a boost in this Asia Cup.

So, the Castrol Index indicates a tough fight for the title with minimal numerical difference between the top teams and handing the Lankans a slight edge because of their convincing performances of late. But with India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, it is never easy to predict a winner. The Asia Cup will make for some tough, keenly-contested and entertaining cricket. Over to Bangladesh now!