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Wednesday, May 06, 2009

Momentum and the Castrol Index

There’s been a lot of talk of momentum at this year’s IPL. Some say Bangalore has momentum on their side now that they have won three straight games. Or Deccan, who started off with four wins on the trot, have subsequently lost momentum with three losses. All the talk would seem to indicate that a side that’s won a match is more likely to win their next. And similarly, losing would breed more losing.

A look at the numbers for the IPL 2009 (excluding abandoned matches) shows that just looking at side’s result in their previous game is not a strong indicator of success in their next game. 

So what is a good indicator of success? “Momentum” cannot just be based on match results- this is too simplistic. A number of factors need to be considered- overall batting, bowling, fielding, performance in the power play and performance at the death. All over the course of a number of recent matches, not just a single match. And that’s exactly what the Castrol Team Index does. In a year where seven teams are bunched close together in the points table, the Castrol Index (CI) is a useful tool to help us understand which teams should make the final four.

It worked for the IPL 2008. Here’s a look at the team standings after 33 matches in the tournament last year (a similar stage to where we are at for the IPL 2009)

The CI after 33 matches indicated that Rajasthan were the best, Punjab were next and should move into second. Chennai were not as good as their table position suggested (remember the Super Kings cooled off after a 4-0 start with Hussey and Hayden leaving), but still good enough to make the semis. Kolkata and Mumbai were in close running for a semi spot but on the outside looking in, while Deccan and Bangalore really didn’t have a chance. And that’s pretty much how things panned out.

So keep an eye on the CI for 2009. Based on how things stand right now, Chennai, Mumbai and Delhi are the strongest sides and should make the final four. Rajasthan, Deccan, Bangalore and Punjab are not too far apart in the ratings which makes for a close contest between them.

Of course, it doesn’t take an index to tell you the Kolkata Knight Riders need a miracle to move up the standings.

Arvind Iyengar - View Profile

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