Thursday, April 23, 2009Sultans of Spin have the Batsmen in Dire StraitsThe conditions in South Africa have produced low scoring matches- a major shift from the big hitting we saw in the inaugural edition of the IPL. Expectedly, the Castrol Index reveals teams on the whole have a lower Batting Momentum (a function of runs amassed and scoring rate) and a higher Bowling Efficiency (a function of wickets taken and economy rate) than last year. It should also come as no surprise that bowlers head the Castrol player rankings. What’s worth noting is that five of the top eight positions are occupied by spinners. Top Bowlers in the IPL 2009
In contrast, Amit Mishra was the only spinner to really challenge any of the quicks for top honours last year. Harbhajan, who played only three matches, just made the top eight cut. And while Shane Warne picked up 19 wickets, his economy rate of 7.8 meant he didn’t even make it into the top 8- he had a bowling efficiency of 51. Overall, the spinners didn’t have a termendous impact. Top Bowlers in the IPL 2008
Three things stand out when one looks at the tables above. 1) Spinners are a lot more effective this year. 2) We are missing out on some high quality Pakistani bowlers this time round. 3) Bowling efficiency scores this year look much higher than they were last year- what have the bowlers been eating! The first two points might make sense, but the last one requires careful examination- the IPL 2008 numbers are based on performances throughout an entire season. The IPL 2009 numbers are early indicators based on just one or two matches. Let’s explain this through an example, Mohammad Azharuddin scored three hundreds in his first three Tests and his average at that point was 109.8. He ended his career with an average of 45. The IPL 2008 numbers in the table above are similar to the overall career number- performances over a long period of time; while the IPL 2009 numbers are more like the early 3 Test average. Over time, the bowling efficiency will adjust to a more accurate value. So don’t expect Murali to be at 218 or Kumble at 116 when the tournament ends. One might then ask what the chances are for one of the bowlers this year to outdo the best from last year. An indicator of that is to compare the early success of bowlers this year vis-à-vis the early success of bowlers last year. Last year’s top bowler after two matches of performance was Lakshmipathy Balaji with a score of 142, which would have just squeezed into the top eight this year. Top Bowlers from IPL 2008 after two matches of performance.
This indicates that there has been a considerable improvement in bowling performances this year- and the magnitude of the numbers tells us how much more important bowlers have become. Anil Kumble with a score of 116 from two matches is comfortably ahead of everyone from last year’s campaign. All of this means that the bowlers, and particularly the sultans of spin, will have a big role to play as the tournament progresses. (4) Comments
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