Expert Blog

Friday, March 12, 2010

The minefield at Delhi

With the third season of IPL just around the corner, our expert dissects the home ground of the Delhi Daredevils.

Ha ha! What is this? Looks like a political commentary has found its way into this site. Not to worry. I will leave the happenings at Rajya Sabha and Lok Sabha to the Sardesais, Roys and Dutts. Instead I will be talking about the other minefield at Delhi, Ferozeshah Kotla. It is with lot of trepidation that teams will be walking into the Delhi cricket ground, be they the visiting teams or home team, this season.

Between IPL-1 and CL-09, the ground at Delhi underwent a transformation that intrigued many. The change in season could not have been the only reason. It could very well have been re-laying schemes gone awry.

During IPL-1 in 2008 Delhi was a typical Indian ground. 5 of the 6 matches had good totals in both innings. The scoring rates were quite high and the bowling strike rates reasonably good. It changed 180 degrees in 2009 during CL-09. Not one match had good totals in both innings. 5 of the 8 totals were low and defended. The scoring rates took a dive.

Let us look at the summary of the two seasons.

IPL-1: 2008 (6 matches)

High totals chased:         2 (187/5 & 188/6, 176/8 & 179/5)
High totals and narrow win:      2 (191/5 & 181/5, 194/4 & 182/9)
Low total chased easily:    1 (129/8 & 132/1)
Rain affected match (11 ov):    1 (118/4 & 94/3).

CL-09: 2009 (8 matches)

Low totals defended:     4 (130/2 & 95/8, 118/9 & 103/4, 119/7 & 119/4, 114/6 & 84/10)
Low total chased:        1 (98/8 & 100/3)
Medium total defended:    1 (144/6 & 91/9)
High totals defended:        2 (170/5 & 120/7, 169/7 & 90/9).

The results are here to see. Not one high total chased. No second innings score exceeding 120. Only one team batting second winning a match.

Let us see some more corroborating numbers.

There is a 35% fall in match RpOs and a whopping 44% in the second innings. The first innings bowling strike rates have been approximately same although there is 20% higher frequency of wicket-taking in the second innings. The numbers are quite damning.

What do we expect now? The drier weather should provide a pitch nearer to IPL-1. However the April sun during the second half of IPL might create cracks and aid the spinners. Not to forget the Sri Lankan ODI fiasco in mid-winter. Anyhow we are in for a jolly time. I will be following the Delhi results far more closely than the other centres.

The irony is that the Delhi team has probably the best top-5 in IPL-3. Is there a better lineup than Sehwag, Gambhir, Dilshan, de Villiers and Karthik?

Tuesday, March 02, 2010

T20 and IPL First innings scores: an analysis

With the third installment of the Indian Premier League just around the corner, our expert digs up some interesting T20 statistics.

Now that the IPL-3 is scheduled to start on March 12, let me turn my attention to the T20 format. This is an analysis of the first innings scores in T20s and IPL matches. Only innings which went into the 20th over and in which the teams were not dismissed are considered.

A perusal of the first innings scores of the T20 Internationals indicates quite a few facts.

High scores are defended quite comfortably. It can be seen that if teams score 170+ runs, they have a 92.1% chance of winning a match. If a team sets itself a seemingly high objective of 75% chance of success, they have to score around 163 runs. The average first innings score is 155.8 and teams scoring above the average have a very high 73.3% chance of winning.

However, look at the bottom. Only one team which scored below 130 has won. This indicates that in T20Is, low scores cannot be defended.

These numbers indicate a wide disparity in the team strengths between the teams. That is the reason why the winning chances are quite high for average plus scores.

There is a quite an inexplicable variation at the 160-169 range. The winning % here is a low 26.7% as compared to the winning % at the lower range of 150-159, which is 73.7%. The only explanation is that there is a degree of complacency which sets at defending these scores around par. The other possibility is that the weaker teams manage to score these above-par runs and are not able to defend these.

In IPLs, the situation is quite different.

High scores cannot be defended that easily. It can be seen that if teams score 170+ runs, they have only a 74.4% chance of winning a match. If a team sets itself a seemingly high objective of 75% chance of success, they have to score around 172 runs. The average first innings score is 157.1 and teams scoring above the average have quite a middling 61.7% chance of winning.

However look at the bottom. Five teams have defended totals below 130, as compared to T20Is figure of one. This indicates that in IPL matches low scores can be defended.

That is a paradox. You need a higher than T20I score to get a similar chance of winning. At the same time, far lower totals have been defended.

These numbers indicate closeness in the team strengths between the teams. These are teams formed with a clear understanding of team balance and bench strength. There are no inherent country type weaknesses. I will do a study of IPL Team strengths later to analyze these aspects.

The conclusion is that in T20Is, the winning score is somewhat lower because of the disparity in strengths. At the same time, very few low scores have been defended. In IPLs, the winning score is pegged at higher levels. However, many lower scores have been defended. The IPL matches represent more even contests.

Monday, February 15, 2010

Momentous collapses in ODI matches

This week, our expert delves into batting collapses in the 50-over version of the game and brings up some interesting statistics too.

During the recent India-Sri Lanka ODI series, Sri Lanka missed two great opportunities to win, but lost both.

In the first match at Rajkot, chasing 415 to win, they were 315 for 1 in 35 overs, lost their way a bit and finally finished 3 runs short. Their failure was minimal and was probably restricted to a few balls.

However, the real failure occurred in the third match at Cuttack. Sri Lanka were 165 for 1 in 22 overs and collapsed to 239. I felt this was as much a disaster as I had ever seen and such instances deserved a wider look.

Some guidelines for the analysis.

1. Only matches for which the Fall of Wkt-Balls information is available will be considered. For the earlier matches it is impossible to do this analysis. If a team collapsed from 150 for 1 to 200 all out, nothing can be inferred without knowing when the score of 150 for 1 was reached. If it was in the 42nd over, this cannot be termed as a collapse.

2. Only situations after 20 overs will be considered. This is necessary since a team scoring 100 for 1 in 10 overs could still lose 2/3 wickets and would have to consolidate. Also I want a decent part of the innings to pass before taking any calls on the estimated final score.

3. The score just before the fall of each wicket will be considered.

4. At this point an objective estimate of what should have been the final score is determined. This is based on the current scoring rate, resource available in terms of wickets available and overs left. Then the estimated score and the actual end-of-the-innings score are compared.

5. For each innings, all pre-wicket-fall situations are analysed and the highest deficit situation is taken.

The formula used is

Estimated score = Current score + (Remaining overs*Estimated scoring rate)

Estimated scoring rate = Current scoring rate * (10 - Wkts lost) / 6.

The Estimated scoring rate is capped, using common sense, depending on number of overs remaining since it would be silly to say that if a team is 150 for 1 in 20 overs and the estimated scoring rate is 10.0, the team would score 450 runs. This has been decided after a number of trial runs and manual comparisons of final scores. Real life educated guesses such as teams at 150 for 2 (or 1 or 0) doubling the score, have been used as guidelines.

The table below lists the 12 matches in which the greatest batting collapses occurred.

From a wonderful position of 100 for 1 in 20 overs, Zimbabwe collapsed to 150 to the wiles of Murali and Chandana. The estimated score is 325 runs, indicating a collapse valued at 175 runs.

In the second match, Canada, aided by Davison’s 60-ball century, were scoring at over 7.5 runs per over. Then they lost their way and were dismissed for 202, 170 runs short. The next match is a collapse by Kenya.

In the fourth match, Sri Lanka were high flying at 130 for 2 in 23.4 overs and then folded at 175, a fall of 147 runs.

In the fifth match, India were cruising at 105 for 2 in 20 overs and then floundered against Angelo Mathews, who took 6 wickets. They folded for 168, a shortfall of 147 runs.

The Cuttack match we started this article with comes in 12th position. Their scoring rate at the fall of the third wicket was 7.33. Theoretically, they could have scored at 9.77. However this has been capped at 7.50 and Sri Lanka’s estimated score was 371 runs. They finished at 239, a shortfall of 132 runs.

Wednesday, February 03, 2010

Same ODI eleven playing in maximum number of matches

An analysis of playing elevens over the years throws up interesting results. You might be surprised too.

Recently I had done an analysis of Test elevens who played together in many matches. The results were quite surprising since the highest was matches by West Indies during 1989-90 when they played together in 11 matches. One would have expected higher numbers.

I decided I would do a similar analysis for ODIs and I seriously expected the same eleven playing together for, say, 25 matches since nearly 3000 matches have been played in 40 years.

I had a shock when I realized that the highest number is even lower than for Tests indicating that there are quite a few team changes, players opting out more often, injuries and the number of utility players who play ODI matches ensures that a playing eleven does not play together long.

The highest is 10 matches, by Sri Lanka. The team is

Mahanama
Jayasuriya
Gurusinha
A de Silva
Ranatunga
Tillekaratne
Kaluwitharana
Dharmasena
Vass
Wickramasinghe
Muralitharan

There are three teams which come next, tied at 8 matches. This was achieved by the Sri Lankan team of Kaluwitharana, Jayasuriya, Atapattu, A de Silva, Ranatunga, Tillekaratne, Mahanama, Dharmasena, Vass, KSC de Silva and Muralitharan.

Also by India, represented by Sehwag, Tendulkar, Mongia, Ganguly, Dravid, Yuvraj Singh, Kaif, Harbhajan, Zaheer Khan, Nehra and Srinath, played 8 matches together. Incidentally the same team played in the 2003 World Cup Final.

The New Zealand XI of Horne, Astle, McMillan, Fleming, Twose, Chris Cairns, Parore, Harris, Nash, Larsen and Allott, played 8 matches.

Three West Indian elevens played 7 matches together. The first team is, Greenidge, Haynes, Richards, Kallicharan, Lloyd, CL King, JT Murray, Roberts, Garner, Holding and Croft. Then, Greenidge, Richardson, Richards, Gomes, Lloyd, Logie, Dujon, Marshall, Garner, Holding and Davis. Finally Haynes, Lara, Simmons, Richardson, Hooper, Logie, Adams, JR Murray, Bishop, Ambrose and Walsh played 7 matches together.

The Zimbabwe eleven of G Flower, Waller, A Flower, Houghton, Evans, Whittall, Campbell, P Strang, Streak, Brandes and Rennie played 7 matches together.

As did South Africa, represented by Kirsten, Gibbs, Kallis, Cullinan, Cronje, Rhodes, Boucher, Pollock, Kluesener, Elworthy and Donald.

And Pakistan played 7 matches. The players were Afridi, Imran Nazir, Younis Khan, Inzamam, Md Yousuf, Razzaq, Latif, Wasim Akram, Waqar, Akhtar and Saqlain.

The best for Australia by Boon, Marsh, Border, Ritchie, Phillips, S Waugh, Mathews, McDermott, Gilbert, Reid and Davis played 6 matches.

4 English teams have played together for 6 matches. The latest eleven is Cook, Mustard, Bell, Pietersen, Collingwood, Shah, Bopara, Swann, Broad, Sidebottom and Anderson.

As a corollary, I took the next step of identifying matches in which all 22 players were the same. One combination has played in 4 matches. South Africa, represented by Smith, Gibbs, Kallis, Dippenaar, Rudolph, Boucher, Pollock, Kluesener, Peterson, Nel and Ntini and West Indies, represented by Gayle, Chanderpaul, R Powell, Sarwan, Lara, DR Smith, Jacobs, Hurley, Dillon, Rampaul and Collymore, played 4 matches a few years back.

Monday, January 18, 2010

ODI Batting Index: a new measure to define greatness

The ODI Bowling average is a composite of the two important measures, viz., Bowling strike rate and Bowling accuracy as demonstrated by the following formula.

The ODI Bowling average is a composite of the two important measures, viz., Bowling strike rate and Bowling accuracy as demonstrated by the following formula.

However Batting does not have a single measure to measure the achievements of batsmen. There are two measures, viz., Batting average and Batting strike rate which are two independent measures. Consider the following two batsme

Both are equally important players. The two key measures are about 30-40% apart for these two great ODI batsmen. How does one measure their contributions?

There is a need for a single composite measure. Hence I had proposed a new measure called ODI Batting Index a few years back. This has evolved over the years and what is presented here is a current and very effective interpretation. The following simple formula is proposed:
 
Batting Index = (Modified) Batting average x Batting strike rate.

Initially, I had used the Batting average and this was quite unfair to the top order batsmen. Then I did this by the “Runs per innings” measure which turns to be quite unfair to the middle order batsmen. Hence I have evolved a new modified Batting average measure which is computed by dividing the Runs scored by an extrapolated number which lies between number of innings and number of dismissals. This is done based on the number of not outs. The results are excellent and can truly be used to measure a batsman’s greatness.

The tables are self-explanatory. Richards is on top deservedly with a modified average figure of 43.36 and strike rate of 90.2. He is closely followed by Dhoni who has a modified average figure of 43.58 and strike rate of 89.2. The underrated classicist, Zaheer Abbas is third with an excellent modified average of 45.12 and strike rate of 84.8. Two great modern batsmen, Hussey and Tendulkar complete the top-5.

Any ODI Index value of above 30 represents greatness. Since the top-20 includes batsmen from most top teams, I have also shown the figures of Jayasuriya who is the leading Sri Lankan batsman and surprisingly, Twose who leads the New Zealanders. The top-20, along with Jayasuriya represents a collection pf possibly the best ODI batsmen of all time.

Saturday, January 02, 2010

ODI scoring rate changes across years

300+ scores now seem to be the order of the day in ODI cricket which has ceased to be an intriguing contest between bat and ball anymore, says our expert.

When we see scores of 280 being talked of as “below-par”, we know that there is some drastic change happening in ODI cricket. And if there is one factor which envelopes all changes, whether these are in innings scores, batsmen strike rate, bowler accuracy analysis, chasing methods, partnership strategies, middle overs handling et al, that is the RpO which is a more effective overall analysis measure than the Strike Rate which is batsman-oriented. In this article, I have analyzed the changes in RpO across the 39 years of ODI cricket, split into convenient periods. The article is current upto the disastrous abandoned ODI match between India and Sri Lanka.

Change of RpO across years

The year 2009 saw a team RpO of 5.12, the highest in history. Readers would do well to remember that this is an average, meaning, for every score of 212 or lower, there was a 300+ score. In fact it has oscillated either side of 5.00 during the last 5 years, during which the overall scoring rate has been exactly 5.00.

Another factor which has changed drastically across years is the % of innings over 300. There was a time an innings score of over 300 was rare. Then 300-chases were rare. Now these happen once in 3 or 4 matches.

% of innings over 300 across years

For information I have given below the number of innings above 300 across the years. Note the extraordinary number of such innings during 2007 and 2009.

Where are we going as far as ODI cricket is concerned? When you have 4 completed matches in the recent ODI series between India-SriLanka, in which 6 out of 8 innings were over 300, these matches cease to be true contests. There is always the ready-made argument that the spectators want high scores, and sixes and fours. That might be true, but the contests have, over the years, changed from between bat and ball to between bat and bat. Which team can bat better? That is the question. If you score 300, I will score 301, if you score 400, I will score 401. That is the challenge, a skewed one. Let the bowlers be damned. After all they are second-class citizens. 5 good overs at the end of high-scoring matches by Zaheer Khan and Nehra do not make up for 195 other batsman-dominant overs.

Tuesday, December 15, 2009

A batsman extraordinary

Virender Sehwag’s batting feats are truly mindboggling. Let’s look at some numbers that define this astonishing cricketer’s scoring prowess.

Most  batsmen start their Test innings slowly, speed up a little but invariably finish their innings on a slow note. Even attacking batsmen like Richards, Lara, Hayden could maintain a good scoring rate (0.75 and above) for, say, 100 runs but found it difficult to maintain such rates consistently for big innings. Only one batsman, Virender Sehwag, has done it consistently throughout his career. A casual glance at his big innings gave me the feeling that he has scored faster in his big innings than the smaller innings. Now that is astounding and I set out to do a complete analysis.

First I created a table of all innings, created an Excel sheet, ordered the same by runs scored and then did a cumulative scoring rate calculation for all innings. Lo and behold, the results are truly amazing. First, let us look at the top part of the table consisting of his 17 centuries.

Sehwag 100s: in decreasing order and related strike rates

The table is self-explanatory.  For each innings I have determined the cumulative scoring rate and the scoring rate for all innings below that. For the first innings (304-ball 319), the cumulative scoring rate is 1.049 and the scoring rate for all innings below 319 is 0.794 and the ratio 1.321. For the second triple-century, the respective values are 0.925, 0.793 and 1.167. And so on.

It can be seen that the ratio is a very high 1.230 for the six double centuries. That is something which is totally inexplicable. That means that Sehwag has scored his double centuries at a rate 23% higher than his other innings. In a perplexing manner, the scoring rate drops off for his 11 other hundreds so much so, at the 100 mark, the strike rates are 0.817 and 0.791 and the ratio only 1.032.

The other interesting fact is that, at no innings does the ratio go below 1.00. The closest is at 47 where the ratio is 1.006 (0.805 against 0.801).

That is Sehwag. The most destructive Test batsman the world has ever seen. One in a billion.

Wednesday, December 02, 2009

An adrenaline jab for the ODI game

Our expert has some interesting suggestions to let the ODI game hold its own up against the traditional Test and the fast-paced Twenty20 formats.

The ODI game has to be livened up so that it offers a clear in-between choice between Tests and T20. Outlined below are some suggestions.
 
1. Allow two bowlers to bowl upto 25% of the maximum overs. 25% has been suggested so that for reduced matches, say 36 overs, this will become a round figure. Of course, for 50 overs it does not matter whether it is 24% or 25%.
 
2. Have the first 15 overs as Powerplay overs and then have a single restriction of 4 fielders inside the ring for the next 35 overs. Let the batting team improvise. Let them find the gaps and run well between the wickets. Sixes can still be hit.

3. However, if the Batting Powerplay is to be continued, ensure that it is completed before the 40th over so that the middle overs are infused with more life.
 
4. Remove the free-hit rule. It imposes a double penalty on the bowler. If a team bowls 6 no balls in an innings, they end up with 12 balls in which they cannot capture a wicket. This is too heavy a penalty.
 
5. Implement the off side wide rule correctly in that a ball should be called a wide only if it cannot be played. Similarly, a ball pitching on leg stump and moving away should not be called a wide. On the other hand, be strict in calling the above waist-high balls. Streamline the bouncers, above waist height and above shoulder height delivery situations.
 
6. If the score ends in a tie, declare a winner based on the scoring rate. In the unlikely event of equality in scoring rate, use the wickets which have been lost as the criteria.

7. Implement the Umpire Decision Review System (UDRS) immediately for all matches. Make it mandatory. I am sure there would be Indian companies queuing up to sponsor the same globally. Restrict the number of unsuccessful appeals to 3 per team for the match, for both the batting and bowling innings together. Let the teams decide when they want to take these.
 
8. If there is value in the proposal to split the innings into two parts, do it as 30 + 20 rather than 25 + 25. This will allow a reasonable innings to be built. Of course many factors such as fielding restrictions, Powerplay, new ball rules, bowler limits et al should be taken care of. One major advantage with this split is that teams would be encouraged to play 5 bowlers. It will also lessen the impact of winning the toss.
 
9. Remove the match fee fine for slow over-rates. Someone like Dhoni earns that fine in 15 minutes. Stop the innings at the designated time (plus stoppage time) and allow the second batting team the full overs, to start with. Keep a similar watch for the second innings also.

10. The following suggestions apply to all the forms of the game. Once a fielder hits the stumps, declare the ball as a dead ball. Why should a good fielding effort be penalized? Also, remove the replay nonsense which happens at the boundary rope. If a fielder manages to keep the ball inside the rope allow that as a save irrespective of his position.

It can be seen that most of these changes would reduce the imbalance between batting and bowling. This has been done realizing that a 250/240 scoreline makes for a much better match than a 350/300 scoreline.

Monday, November 16, 2009

Tendulkar - the bowler

Though known for his stupendous batting prowess, one shouldn’t overlook Sachin Tendulkar’s bowling exploits in his long illustrious career.

20 years ago, today, Sachin Tendulkar made his debut. No one could have foreseen that the great maestro would score nearly 30000 international runs during this period nor that he would still be in his prime form. Everyone seems to be discussing the batting exploits of the master. One facet of his game, his bowling, seems to be ignored. Let us look at his bowling exploits, especially in winning ODI matches.

Tendulkar has captured 154 ODI wickets, albeit at a, highest amongst bowlers, average of 44.50. However he has, to his credit, many match-winning bowling performances which are summarized below. He has had 14 innspells in which he captured 3 wickets and more.

First, that famous last over in the Hero Cup semi-final match against South Africa at Calcutta. Probably South Africa have never recovered from this over when they needed 6 runs to win and could only score 3 runs, completely bemused by Tendulkar’s unorthodox spin.

4 for 34 against West Indies during 1991 at Sharjah

West Indies, batting first, were dismissed for 141. This was one of Tendulkar’s best collection of top-order scalps, considering that he dismissed Lambert, Richardson, Logie and Dujon. India won quite comfortably.

3 for 43 against Sri Lanka during 1994 at Rajkot

Chasing India’s modest total of 246, Sri Lanka finished 8 runs short, thanks to Tendulkar’s bowling. He dismissed three top order batsmen, Mahanama, Samaraveera and Ranatunga. One could safely say that this was the match, which, along with the Calcutta one, changed the perception of Tendulkar as a bowler. Until this match he had captured 16 wickets in 65 matches.

3 for 36 against West Indies during 1994 at Chennai

West Indies, batting first, were dismissed for 221. This was one of Tendulkar’s better innspells, considering that he dismissed Lara, Adams and Campbell. India won quite comfortably.

5 for 32 against Australia during 1998 at Kochi

India batted first and scored 309. Australia fell 41 runs short, thanks to Tendulkar’s one of two 5-wicket hauls in international cricket. Included in this innspell were the wickets of Bevan, Steve Waugh, Lehmann and Martyn, a formidable quartet.


4 for 38 against Australia during 1998 at Dhaka

This was the Wills International Cup (ICC Cup) quarter-finals. This almost followed the pattern of the Kochi match. India scored 307 and Australia were dismissed for 263. Tendulkar captured the wickets of Bevan, Steve Waugh and Martyn. Let us not forget that Tendulkar also scored 141 runs, making this one of the best all-round performances by any player.

5 for 50 against Pakistan during 2005 at Kochi

India scored 281 and then dismissed Pakistan for 194. Tendulkar’s victims included Inzamam, Hafeez, Razzaq and Afridi. Interesting to note that Tendulkar captured his second 5-wicket haul at Kochi. Probably the “karimeen” there agrees with him.

It can be seen that most of Tendulkar’s better bowling performances have come in India. This is a reflection of his style of bowling.

Tendulkar was a far better bowler in ODIs than Tests probably because he was quite unorthodox and batsmen who tried to attack him paid the price. In Tests, they had the luxury of not having to attack always. However, no one can forget Tendulkar’s match-winning supporting innspell at Calcutta in the Laxman match. He captured 3 for 31 in an incisive spell dismissing Hayden, Gilchrist and Warne. While Harbhajan was the main destroyer, Tendulkar’s role in this epic win can never be forgotten.

It is intriguing that Tendulkar failed as a batsman in all these matches barring the ICC Cup quarter-final.

Tuesday, November 03, 2009

Stuart Clark: Champion bowler in the Champions League

Let’s analyse the Australian bowler’s performance at the recently-concluded Champions League.

Some of the all-star player selections in the Champions League emphasized quantity against quality. How else can one explain the placing of Henriques and McKay above Nannes and Clark? From point of view of quality of wickets and bowling accuracy, these two bowlers stand way above the others, with Clark edging out Nannes comfortably. Here I am going to look at Clark’s bowling innspells* in general and three in particular. It is worth mentioning that these bowlers bowled a lot in Delhi.

Clark bowled 22.5 overs in 6 matches in the tournament, conceded 112 runs and captured 9 wickets. He had outstanding figures of a bowling average of 12.44 and RpO of 4.90. Let us not forget that there was no weak team in the tournament.

CL09-Match#2 against Cape Cobras

3   x Wkts = 0
12 x   0     = 0
6   x  1      = 6
3   x  2      = 6

The complete innspell is detailed below

The three wickets were those of Van Wyk, Dippenaar and du Preez, all genuine batsmen. There were 15 score-less deliveries and not a single boundary was scored.

CL09-Match#18 against Somerset

3   x  Wkts =  0
9   x   0     =  0
11 x   1     = 11
 1  x   4     =  4

The three wickets were those of Kieswetter, Langer and Hildreth, all genuine batsmen. There were 12 score-less deliveries and a single boundary was scored, that too off the last ball of the innspell.

CL09-Match#23 against Trinidad & Tobago

3  x  Wkts = 0
7  x  0      =  0
9  x  1      =  9
2  x  2      =  4
2  x  4      =  8

The three wickets were those of Ramdin, Stewart and Mohammad, all competent batsmen. There were 10 score-less deliveries.

In these three innspells, Clark had a wicket every 8 balls, a dot ball component of over 50% (37 out of 71), a four every 4 overs and conceded no extras, not even a leg bye. The hallmark of a great performance is the number of times consecutive dot balls are bowled. Clark achieved this an incredible 19 times in the 12 overs of these three spells.

The other three innspells were

3-0-20-0 vs Sussex
4-0-27-0 vs Trinidad & Tobago
4-0-17-0 vs Victoria (Semi final)

One outstanding, one middling and one average innspell. One could only fault the first innspell, despite an RpO of 6.67. The second spell was in the face of the Kieran Pollard blitzkrieg. This was more than made up by the tight spell in the semi final.

In summary, four outstanding spells and two acceptable ones. On this basis, there is no doubt that Stuart Clark was one of the bowling architects of the trophy success of New South Wales and the bowler of the tournament.

Mr. Hilditch, why is Clark not in the Australian ODI team? For that matter, Nannes?


*An ‘innspell’ is the complete bowling effort of a bowler in an innings.

Tuesday, October 20, 2009

Duminy’s masterpiece - a few reasons why

The South African’s blistering knock against the Royal Challengers makes for some incredible analysis. Read on…

JP Duminy set the Champions League alight with an incandescent performance in the first match against Royal Challengers Bangalore. Since I watched the innings in full, I was able to appreciate many subtle nuances of the innings. I concluded, in a subjective manner, that it was one of the best chasing innings ever. Possible reasons are listed below.

- Duminy did not take time to settle down.
- He paced his innings perfectly.
- He never got stuck. Dot balls were rare.
- The required team rate never went out of hand. It was always manageable.

Then it struck me that I should be able to prove all these subjective statements in an objective, analytical manner. So I downloaded the innings data, created an Excel sheet for Duminy’s innings and went to work.

If we consider the match-related factors surrounding Duminy’s innings, the high total being chased, the entry at 14 for 2 (including Gibbs at 0), the quality of RCB bowling, the venue et al, this innings is likely to figure in the top-5 of almost any ODI/T20 innings table. Most of ODI/T20’s great innings have been first innings efforts: Richards’ 189, Jayasuriya’s 189, Saeed Anwar’s 194, Gilchrist’s 149, Dilshan’s 96 and the rest. This effort almost matches Dhoni’s 183 against Sri Lanka in 2005 and probably betters Gibbs’ 90 in T20.
 
First, the ball summary of Duminy’s innings. He scored 99 runs in 52 balls.

5 x 6s= 30
8 x 4s= 32
6 x 2s= 12
25x 1s= 25
2 x 1s=  0 (lb/b)
6 x 0s=  0

Note the very low dot balls, only around 12%. Also the number of singles taken, nearly half the number of balls played. This indicates an outstanding pacing of the innings. There were two other dot balls, for Duminy, but not for the team.

Now let us take a look at his innings scoring rate, chart below.  Barring couple of balls, his scoring rate never fell below 150. This again clearly proves that his pacing was almost perfect.


Let us now look at his ball-by-ball chart. Note that his 6 dot balls are distributed 2, 1, 1, 1 and 1. Only once did he have consecutive dot balls, that too at the beginning of the innings, book-ended between the first ball 4 and the fourth ball 6. All other dot balls were either preceded or followed by a six or four.

I have split his innings in groups of 6 balls and done a scoring rate chart of these groups. Not one of these 9 groups has a sub-100 scoring rate. That means he never had a poor scoring sequence.

Finally, the team scoring rate. The required rate at the beginning was 9.55 and Duminy walked in during the second over. Subsequently during the next 17 overs, the innings scoring rate never exceeded 10.8, which is a very difficult thing to achieve considering that the starting rate was nearly 10. In reality, in more than two-thirds of these overs, the required scoring rate was below 10.0. This shows a keen awareness of the situation and perfect pacing of the team innings, orchestrated by Duminy.

Wednesday, October 07, 2009

ICC Champions Trophy: a review of performances

Here’s a quick glance at some important numbers thrown up by the recently concluded Champions Trophy.

Whatever be my credentials as an analyst, it looks like I am a very poor crystal gazer. Three of the four teams I had guesstimated as potential semi-finalists at the ICC Champions Trophy (CT) took earlier flights home. But then most of the experts and analysts got it wrong. So all of us are in good company.

In this article, let me look at the top performances in the six editions of the tournament. I will not go into the methodology of performance ratings. That is for later articles. Runs scored, scoring rate, team position, bowling quality, wickets captured, quality of wickets taken, bowling accuracy, pitch type, target score, relative team strengths, match result, match venue, margin of win, match importance, resources used are some of the parameters used to rate these performances.

Ganguly’s 141 in the 2000 semi-final against a strong South African team is the best CT batting performance. It is closely followed by Andy Flower’s 145 against India in a losing chasing cause. The third in this list is Kallis’ match winning century against Sri Lanka in the 1998 semi-final. Surely the most important batting performance would be Chris Cairns’ match-winning 100 against India in 2000. New Zealand, chasing 265, were 132 for 5. Chris Cairns controlled the rest of the innings beautifully and New Zealand ran out surprise winners.

The best bowling performance is by Maharoof who captured 6 for 14, including five top order wickets against West Indies in 2006. Next in line is Kallis’ 5 for 30 against West Indies in the 1998 Final. This is followed by Ntini’s 5 top-order Pakistani wickets for 21 during the 2006 edition.

Tendulkar’s 141 and 4 for 38 against Australia in 1998 is the best ever player performance in CT matches. This is followed by Ganguly’s 2000 semi-final performance of 141 and 1 for 5. Kallis’ 37 and 5 for 30 against West Indies in the 1998 final is the third best.

The most devastating team performance is Sri Lanka’s demolition of West Indies in 206. After dismissing West Indies for 80, they reached the target in 13 overs.
 
Watson’s 136 against England is the best batting performance in the CT concluded recently. Smith’s back-to-the-wall 141 runs this close. Gavin Tonge’s top-order demolition of Pakistan in the current edition is the fourth best CT bowling performance ever. Watson’s semi final all-round effort of 136 and 2 for 35 is also the fourth best playing performance. Australia’s semi-final white-wash of England is the best team performance in CT 2009.

A footnote: A peculiar facet of the Champions Trophy batting has been that most of the top innings have been around 140.

Monday, September 21, 2009

Champions Trophy 2009: a (p)review

The ICC Champions Trophy has had a chequered existence. Like some Indian cities, it has even had three names.

The ICC Champions Trophy has had a chequered existence. Like some Indian cities, it has even had three names. To start with, it kicked off as a colourless knock-out tournament called the “Wills International Cup” and then became an almost forgettable 12-nation event as the “ICC KnockOut”. It has now, thankfully, evolved into the current, rather crisp, tournament format known as the ICC Champions Trophy.

The event has had a second-rung tournament feel amongst the players and spectators, even though the level of competition is quite high.

However, it is certainly an important one for three captains: Hansie Cronje, Stephen Fleming and Brian Lara. This is the only piece of silverware which they have held in their hands. For someone like Lara, this was possibly the most important achievement, in his own words, rivalling his personal batting landmarks of 375 and 400.

And let us not forget the desperation showed by Australia in 2006 since that was the one trophy they had never won.

The first event was won by South Africa through their professional performance, especially Jacques Kallis. New Zealand won the second edition through a wonderful coming-from-behind effort orchestrated by Chris Cairns. The third instalment of the Champions Trophy was a wholly unsatisfactory event, since over 110 overs were bowled in a tied final with India and Sri Lanka sharing the trophy.

The England edition provided the home team with a perfect opportunity to win their first trophy. When West Indies were 147 for 8, chasing 218, Vaughan probably started practising the cup-aloft posture. Then the two Bajans, Browne and Bradshaw defied all odds and won for Lara and the modern West Indies team their only trophy.

The last Champions Trophy featured 12 teams where Australia lost the opening encounter against West Indies. Then, with their backs to the wall, they won all the remaining matches and had their huge day against the Windies in the final.

Now a look at the 2009 edition, which has finally found a home in South Africa.

This is not an easy tournament to crystal-gaze. Anyone who predicts a winner is only making an educated guess. The format is an unforgiving one, just about allowing one slip-up. If a team plays badly, it is almost out.

The groups are intriguing. While Group A has a very weak team, as it stands today, in West Indies, the other three, Australia, India and Pakistan, are quite formidable.

The other group has two strong contenders in South Africa and Sri Lanka and two indifferent teams in England and New Zealand.

Any predictions are dicey. However, I expect the likely semi-finalists to be South Africa, Sri Lanka, Australia and India. Afterwards, I suggest, toss a coin a few times to predict a winner. You could be more successful than many an expert.

Who could be the best performers? Seeing the past three ODI matches, you couldn’t go too wrong if you zeroed in on Jayasuriya, Tendulkar and Ponting.

At the end of the current event, we will look at the top performances in all six editions.
 
Y. Ananthanarayanan